October 22, 2026 at 5:53 AM UTC

Pregame Analysis

Haliburton's Home Return Meets a Thin Mavericks Frontcourt

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Indiana's healthier rotation and a returning Haliburton give the Pacers the edge over a depleted Dallas.

The headline in Indianapolis is Tyrese Haliburton, who is back after missing all of last season with a torn Achilles. One source says he is at 100%. The Pacers' offense runs through his decision-making, and a home crowd that has waited a full year to see him should supply real energy. If he settles in early, Indiana's pace and ball movement can put Dallas on its heels from the opening minutes.

Dallas has its own comeback story in Kyrie Irving, who returned from an ACL tear that also cost him all of last season. He was off the injury report for the opener, but his preseason minutes were managed, so his workload is worth watching. Alongside Cooper Flagg, he gives the Mavericks a capable backcourt and a dependable source of shot creation. The question is how long he can carry that load without a deep supporting cast.

The supporting cast is the issue. Dereck Lively II is out after right foot surgery with no timetable for his return, and Santi Aldama is out while recovering from right knee surgery. That leaves Dallas short up front, where Indiana can attack the paint and the glass. Caleb Martin (right thumb sprain) and Tarik Biberovic (right heel bursitis) are also out, which thins the wings and leaves few fresh options if Irving sits or the rotation needs a spark.

Irving and Flagg should keep Dallas competitive for stretches, but the Mavericks will have trouble sustaining it when their reserves are on the floor. With Haliburton orchestrating at home and Dallas missing four rotation players, I like Indiana to pull away late in a game that stays close through three quarters.

Prediction: Pacers 114, Mavericks 106.

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