October 20, 2026 at 1:55 AM UTC

Pregame Analysis

Spurs and Thunder Reopen the Western Conference Finals on Opening Night

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San Antonio gets the first word in a Western Conference Finals rematch, and home court should help the Spurs narrowly beat Oklahoma City.

The league could hardly have asked for a better opener. Thunder-Spurs tips off Tuesday night at Frost Bank Center on NBC, and it is a rematch of last season's seven-game Western Conference Finals, which San Antonio won. Oklahoma City arrives with a revenge storyline, and the Spurs get to host the first chapter.

Both teams are missing someone. Tobias Harris is out for San Antonio, and Otega Oweh is out for Oklahoma City. Those absences affect rotations, and Harris's is the more interesting one. Coverage of the Spurs has pointed to Carter Bryant making a strong case for a bigger role, so the opener could show how San Antonio fills the gap. Whatever Mitch Johnson decides, Victor Wembanyama will be the centerpiece. His matchup with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the headline subplot, and Wembanyama has already drawn attention for his recent comments about the Thunder star.

Oklahoma City's case is also strong. Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are locked in long term, and that trio drives the Thunder's title expectations. Some preseason outlooks still lean toward them, including a pick of OKC to win another championship. Cason Wallace's new five-year extension also keeps a top young defensive guard in place. Analysts are debating whether the Thunder overpaid, but his job on opening night is simple: make life hard for San Antonio's ball handlers.

I expect a tight, physical game decided late. Oklahoma City has the star power and the defensive depth to stay close, but San Antonio has home court, the memory of beating this team in seven games, and Wembanyama's size around the rim. I'll take the Spurs by a possession or two.

Prediction: Spurs 114, Thunder 110.

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